NEW ZEALAND BUSINESS NEWS
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Investor confidence has climbed back into positive territory, and the family home is no longer where New Zealand investors expect the best returns to come from. ASB’s latest investor confidence survey puts net confidence at 15 per cent for the quarter, a rise of 14 percentage points that takes the measure above the levels typically seen over the past two years.
The survey asks investors where they expect the best returns to come from. Managed investments topped the list at 16 per cent of respondents, followed closely by KiwiSaver at 15 per cent. The house an investor owns and lives in came in at 14 per cent, with public shares and term deposits both at 12 per cent.
Aucklanders drove much of the improvement. Net investor confidence in the region jumped 22 percentage points to 26 per cent, the strongest result Auckland has recorded in nearly three years.
The national figure has recovered from a period in which confidence took repeated hits, including the war in the Middle East this year and the tariff announcements of last year. Both events knocked sentiment back sharply, and the latest quarter suggests investors are looking past that uncertainty rather than being defined by it.
Share market performance was a key positive in the quarter, and improved sentiment towards other investment types also lifted the overall result. A weak New Zealand dollar has added to the effect for people holding managed funds and KiwiSaver balances because it raises the value of overseas assets when converted back into local currency.
The survey also asked whether retirement policy would influence how people vote, and the answer was yes for a large share of younger investors. Nearly seven in 10 people aged 30-39 said policies on KiwiSaver contributions and the superannuation age could affect their vote.
That is a notable result for a group with decades of working life ahead of them. It suggests long-term financial security is already a political consideration well before retirement age, rather than something that only becomes relevant in the final years of a career.
The election is also casting a shadow over the rest of the year. Uncertainty about property and KiwiSaver changes is expected to weigh on the mood, on top of the global uncertainty that has persisted through the year.
For businesses that rely on consumer spending and investment flows, the shift in where investors expect returns has practical implications. Money directed towards managed funds and KiwiSaver is money that is not being directed into residential property, and the survey shows the owner-occupied home sitting below both of those options.
Advisers and fund managers will also be watching the Auckland result closely. A 26 per cent net confidence reading is the region’s best in nearly three years, and Auckland is the country’s largest pool of investable household savings.
The political dimension matters for anyone selling financial products or advice. With nearly seven in 10 younger investors saying KiwiSaver and superannuation settings could shape their vote, policy detail is likely to be scrutinised closely through the election period, and any proposed change to contribution rates or the eligibility age will land with an audience that is already paying attention.
The improvement in confidence is real, but it sits against a backdrop of persistent global uncertainty and a domestic election cycle that has not yet resolved. Investors have had a lot to absorb this year, and the survey suggests they are making decisions on where returns are likely to come from rather than waiting for clarity on every front.
That is consistent with the ranking at the top of the survey. Managed investments and KiwiSaver are the two options most closely tied to market performance, and both have benefited from a strong share market and a weaker currency. The owner-occupied home, by contrast, depends on a property market that the survey places behind both of them.
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