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Channel Infrastructure NZ, which owns and operates the Marsden Point fuel terminal and pipeline network north of Auckland, has released a revised long-term fuel demand outlook prepared by energy consultancy Envisory. The forecast now projects an additional 1.3 billion litres of throughput through the terminal to 2050, compared with Envisory’s October 2024 version.
The company’s shares trade on the NZX and the ASX under the code CHI. Its business moves refined fuel in bulk: ships discharge at Marsden Point, and the fuel travels by pipeline and truck to customers across the upper North Island. How much petrol, diesel, and jet fuel the country burns therefore sets the volume that moves across its assets.
Two forces sit behind the upgrade. First, petrol and diesel demand is expected to stay higher for longer because weaker economic conditions have slowed how quickly households and businesses replace their vehicles. The second is the pace of electric vehicle sales, which Envisory says will take time to work through the wider national fleet.
Diesel gets particular attention. Envisory expects diesel demand to grow as the economy recovers, and slower replacement of commercial vehicles extends that demand further out. In its base case, the forecast includes an additional ~300 million litres of petrol and diesel throughput in 2050 compared with the October 2024 view.
Envisory also expects Channel’s share of national petrol and diesel demand to grow. It attributes this to Auckland’s faster population growth and to the efficiency of Channel’s infrastructure for delivering fuel at scale.
The jet fuel picture is softer in the short term. Envisory has lowered its near-term outlook, reflecting revised passenger forecasts and the impact of high 2026 fuel prices. Channel describes this as consistent with its own expectations.
Most of the revision to Auckland Airport passenger numbers relates to domestic and short-haul travel, so it does not translate into an equivalent fall in jet fuel demand. Long-haul flights consume significantly more jet fuel. Envisory continues to expect long-haul travel growth to support demand over time, and its longer-term jet fuel outlook is broadly unchanged.
Channel chief executive Rob Buchanan used the release to highlight the strategic diesel reserve the Government established this year. “The changing geopolitical environment and diesel’s vital role in New Zealand’s economy, particularly in the primary and export sectors, highlight the importance of the Government’s steps this year to establish a nine-day strategic diesel reserve, with tanks available until the storage contract ends in December 2027,” he said.
He went on to put a cost on the cover: “Channel estimates the cost of this economic insurance, including the estimated cost of holding the diesel, is equivalent to around 1 cent per litre for the full nine days of reserve cover secured for New Zealand.”
New Zealand’s minimum stockholding obligation for diesel currently stands at 21 days, rising to 28 days in July 2028. The jet fuel obligation is set at 24 days. Australia has announced plans to lift its in-country stocks to 50 days for both diesel and jet fuel, using a mix of minimum stockholding obligations and long-term government strategic reserves.
For operators, the practical signal is that the fuel supply chain is being planned on the assumption that liquid fuels remain central to the economy well past 2050, rather than fading quickly as electric vehicles arrive. Businesses in the primary and export sectors, which Buchanan singles out as heavy diesel users, face a longer runway of diesel dependence than earlier forecasts implied.
“The outlook for fuel demand and its importance to economic growth for exporting nations, such as New Zealand, underscores the development of national fuel security plans as are being undertaken by many countries, including here in New Zealand and in Australia, following the impact of events overseas,” Buchanan said.
Channel combines Envisory’s long-term scenarios with its own views on demand and operating conditions when setting business plans and market guidance. Its FY26 guidance is unchanged, with assumed 2% jet fuel volume growth in 2026 broadly in line with Envisory’s updated near-term outlook. The full outlook is available in the company’s investor centre.
Source: NZX announcements
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